Yes, there is only one poll that matters. Yes, the election is on November 6, 2012 (unless you early vote !). Yes, if we don't give it our all, we might lose. And yes, down ballot races matter - State legislature races and governor races, US House of Representative races, and US Senate races are all extremely important. Wednesday is the first debate.
It is possible, albeit highly unlikely, that the debate could alter the trajectory of the race. Nevertheless, with all of the above caveats duly noted (I am looking at you debbie downer concern trolls), we are leading in the composite numbers for every single legitimate swing state.